Data
India Real Rate of Return
Quarterly History: 2016–2025
40 quarters of actual data — CPI inflation, FD nominal rates, 10Y G-Sec yields, and the post-tax real return a 30%-bracket investor actually earned. The gap between what the bank advertises and what you keep after tax and inflation.
← Interactive calculator -0.3% Avg FD real return (post-30% tax)
2016–2025
2016–2025
-0.0% Avg G-Sec real return (post-30% tax)
2016–2025
2016–2025
2.5% Avg PPF real return (tax-free)
2016–2025
2016–2025
4.9% Avg CPI inflation
2016–2025
2016–2025
Post-tax real returns vs. CPI inflation (quarterly, 2016–2025)
Real return = Fisher exact: ((1 + nominal_post-tax) / (1 + CPI) − 1).
FD and G-Sec taxed at 30% slab. PPF is EEE (fully exempt). A positive value means
purchasing power grew; negative means inflation won.
Annual averages
| Year | CPI avg % | FD 1Y nominal % | G-Sec 10Y % | PPF rate % | FD Real post-30% tax | G-Sec Real post-30% tax | PPF Real tax-free |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.2% | +0.10% | +0.02% | +3.05% |
| 2017 | 3.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | +1.46% | +1.48% | +4.51% |
| 2018 | 3.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.7% | +0.89% | +1.40% | +3.62% |
| 2019 | 4.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.9% | +0.57% | +0.72% | +3.71% |
| 2020 | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.3% | -2.32% | -2.07% | +0.82% |
| 2021 | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | -1.60% | -1.00% | +1.61% |
| 2022 | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | -2.26% | -1.46% | +0.47% |
| 2023 | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | -0.53% | -0.42% | +1.52% |
| 2024 | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | +0.22% | +0.11% | +2.22% |
| 2025 | 3.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | +0.86% | +0.78% | +3.08% |
| 10Y avg | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | -0.26% | -0.04% | +2.46% |
Quarterly detail (40 quarters)
| Quarter | CPI % | FD 1Y % | G-Sec % | PPF % | FD Real post-30% tax | G-Sec Real post-30% tax | PPF Real EEE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 Q1 | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.7% | -0.43% | -0.33% | +2.84% |
| 2016 Q2 | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | -0.43% | -0.43% | +2.27% |
| 2016 Q3 | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | -0.21% | -0.28% | +2.66% |
| 2016 Q4 | 3.4% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.0% | +1.45% | +1.11% | +4.45% |
| 2017 Q1 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | +1.19% | +1.12% | +4.25% |
| 2017 Q2 | 2.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | +2.47% | +2.44% | +5.58% |
| 2017 Q3 | 2.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | +1.77% | +1.71% | +4.86% |
| 2017 Q4 | 4.3% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.8% | +0.41% | +0.64% | +3.36% |
| 2018 Q1 | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | +0.15% | +0.65% | +2.87% |
| 2018 Q2 | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | +0.00% | +0.53% | +2.57% |
| 2018 Q3 | 3.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.6% | +1.16% | +1.83% | +3.76% |
| 2018 Q4 | 2.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.0% | +2.24% | +2.58% | +5.26% |
| 2019 Q1 | 2.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.0% | +2.44% | +2.71% | +5.47% |
| 2019 Q2 | 3.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | +1.75% | +1.75% | +4.75% |
| 2019 Q3 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | +1.01% | +1.12% | +4.25% |
| 2019 Q4 | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.9% | -2.91% | -2.68% | +0.37% |
| 2020 Q1 | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | -2.19% | -1.99% | +1.22% |
| 2020 Q2 | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | -1.99% | -1.86% | +0.94% |
| 2020 Q3 | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.1% | -2.74% | -2.41% | +0.37% |
| 2020 Q4 | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | -2.37% | -2.01% | +0.75% |
| 2021 Q1 | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | -1.32% | -0.76% | +1.90% |
| 2021 Q2 | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.1% | -1.79% | -1.29% | +1.42% |
| 2021 Q3 | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.1% | -1.79% | -1.16% | +1.42% |
| 2021 Q4 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.1% | -1.51% | -0.78% | +1.71% |
| 2022 Q1 | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | -2.28% | -1.36% | +0.85% |
| 2022 Q2 | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | -3.08% | -1.98% | -0.19% |
| 2022 Q3 | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | -2.55% | -1.77% | +0.09% |
| 2022 Q4 | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | -1.11% | -0.75% | +1.13% |
| 2023 Q1 | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | -1.59% | -1.33% | +0.47% |
| 2023 Q2 | 4.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | +0.29% | +0.32% | +2.39% |
| 2023 Q3 | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | -0.50% | -0.44% | +1.52% |
| 2023 Q4 | 5.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | -0.31% | -0.25% | +1.71% |
| 2024 Q1 | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | -0.12% | -0.12% | +1.90% |
| 2024 Q2 | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | +0.36% | +0.22% | +2.29% |
| 2024 Q3 | 3.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | +1.23% | +0.99% | +3.18% |
| 2024 Q4 | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | -0.57% | -0.67% | +1.52% |
| 2025 Q1 | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | +0.44% | +0.41% | +2.68% |
| 2025 Q2 | 3.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | +1.41% | +1.24% | +3.68% |
| 2025 Q3 | 3.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | +1.22% | +1.15% | +3.48% |
| 2025 Q4 | 4.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | +0.38% | +0.32% | +2.49% |
How to read this data
Every row answers: "If you locked ₹1 lakh in this instrument for this quarter, what was your real purchasing-power gain or loss?" The real return is computed using the Fisher exact formula:
Real return = ((1 + post-tax nominal) / (1 + CPI inflation)) − 1 For FD and G-Sec, the post-tax nominal assumes a 30% income-tax slab (the highest slab). If you're in a lower bracket, your real return will be higher — use the calculator to model your own slab. PPF is EEE (Exempt-Exempt-Exempt), so the full nominal rate goes into the Fisher formula.
What the data shows
- 2017–2018: A "golden window" — FD rates were high (~7%) while CPI dipped to 2–3%, delivering positive real returns even post-tax.
- 2019 Q4 – 2020 Q3: The worst stretch — inflation spiked to 6–8% while the RBI cut rates aggressively. FD real returns plunged to −3% to −4%.
- 2021–2022: Post-COVID inflation surge with FD rates near cycle lows. Real returns stayed deeply negative throughout.
- 2023–2024: Rates recovered and CPI moderated. FD real returns turned marginally positive — but barely cleared 0% even pre-tax.
- PPF vs FD: PPF consistently delivers a higher real return than FD because there is no tax drag on the nominal income. Over 10 years, PPF averaged ~2.5% real vs FD's ~-0.3%. The difference compounds to a significant wealth gap on a 15-year PPF holding.
Limitations
- CPI figures are quarterly averages of monthly y-o-y prints. Actual experienced inflation varies by household basket.
- FD rate shown is SBI 1-year term deposit (public rate card at start of quarter). Private banks like HDFC and ICICI have historically offered 0.25–0.50% more.
- G-Sec yield is the quarterly average benchmark 10Y yield from RBI DBIE. Short-term G-Secs yield less; longer maturities may yield more.
- Tax computation assumes TDS deducted at 30% on gross FD interest. No surcharge or cess included.
- Values are approximate reconstructions from public data; minor discrepancies from official archives are possible.
Data sources
- CPI inflation: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) — Consumer Price Index (Combined), base year 2012=100. Monthly y-o-y releases averaged per quarter.
- FD rates: State Bank of India official rate card — 1-year term deposit, general public rate. Checked at start of each quarter.
- G-Sec yield: Reserve Bank of India Database on Indian Economy (DBIE) — Benchmark 10-year Government Security yield (secondary market). Quarterly average of daily closing yields.
- PPF rate: Government of India notifications (Finance Ministry) — rate applicable for the respective quarter/year.
All data is approximate and for informational purposes only. Do not make investment decisions based solely on this historical data. Past real returns do not guarantee future performance.
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